Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
