Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a ability provided through current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
