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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or simply the greatest upset.

However this year's race is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and fun season, he's up against multiple other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. But he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still